Post-election, What Happens Now?

The results of 42nd Canadian General Election. Liberal candidates from across the country were elected to 184 seats in the House of Commons, earning a majority government under the leadership of Prime Minister in-waiting Justin Trudeau. The Conservative Party of Canada saw candidates elected in 99 ridings and will form the Official Opposition in the 42nd Parliament of Canada. Trudeau will (within the next two weeks) appoint the 29th Canadian Ministry from among his 184-strong caucus. The NDP was reduced to third party status with 44 seats and the Bloc next in line with 10 seats. Green Party leader Elizabeth May held her Saanich–Gulf Islands riding on Vancouver Island. But the results of this election are probably not news to you. The question is what happens now that the election has finished and we have a new majority government in Canada?

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Canada election results 2011/15. BBC News.

First let’s understand what has happened in parliament as a result of the election. Most importantly, the 41st Parliament of Canada has given way to the 42nd Parliament. This is the largest parliament in Canadian history with 338 seats distributed evenly across ridings roughly equally representing over 35-million electors. The direct result of casting a ballot on 19 Oct 15 was the formation of this parliament. This is why you were not handed a ballot with the name Justin Trudeau, Thomas Mulcair, Stephen Harper or Elizabeth May on it (unless you lived in their particular riding of course).

As a result of the formation of the 42nd Parliament of Canada, a new ministry is now required. Through responsible government, the Governor-General is compelled to appoint persons who have been duly elected into parliament to form the Canadian Ministry and who gets appointed to lead it depends on who can command the confidence of the House of Commons. Once a new parliament is formed, convention dictates that the Governor-General assess parliament to determine the potential requirement for new ministry (or the continuance of the current) and designates a Prime Minister, if required. Justin Trudeau is currently technically the Prime Minister in-waiting because he has not been designated by the Governor-General (that I know of as of this being posted), but that is a really technical detail; Justin Trudeau will lead the next ministry and will become Prime Minister with a majority government. During this entire period, the current Prime Minister has not been relieved of his responsibility as the leader of the country. Stephen Harper at the time of this publication is (was) still Prime Minister of Canada and leader of the 28th Canadian Ministry. Justin Trudeau has indicated that he will appoint a new cabinet in two weeks which will start with a swearing-in ceremony at Rideau Hall overseen by the Governor-General of Canada. This will be the official start of the 29th Canadian Ministry under Justin Trudeau.

This all might seem very technical but there are some implications for our country. Suppose, for example, that something tragic happened in the country, no doubt Stephen Harper would be legally permitted to issue orders if required. He might listen to input from Trudeau, as the Prime Minister designate, but whether there is an exact requirement is legally dubious. On the flip side, suppose for some reason Justin Trudeau was unable to fulfill his duties as an MP and thus as Prime Minister (for example, a major illness suddenly discovered). A new person could be appointed by the Liberal caucus and eventually elected by the party membership to take his place. This could happen at any time during the ministry as well, however it would start a new ministry (and Trudeau would be required to resign). But these are topics for other posts, the important thing is that the Prime Minister from a legal standpoint is just the person who can marshal command of the House of Commons (all major federal parties have developed internal mechanisms for how this person is elected and legitimized within the party and parliament through convention).

Now, we may not know to what extant Harper may still exercise power as out-going Prime Minister but we do know that Trudeau and his soon-to-be ministry are moving in on parliament. In the coming two weeks Harper will move his office out of the Langevin Block (home of the PMO and Privy Council) and Justin Trudeau will move in. There are already indications that public servants at the Privy Council (the bureaucratic arm of the PMO) have begun to comb through the Liberal platform to present options on how to implement their promises. In short order, briefing material will be created for each soon-to-be-appointed minister that will include a letter from the leader explaining his vision for their portfolio and sometimes a letter from the Clerk of the Privy Council of Canada. Most of this material has most likely already begun to be put together by civil servants across the country.

Trudeau himself will be busy combing through his caucus to build a representative government. Cabinet-making in Canada has always been a particular art. All of the way back to the United Province of Canada when cabinet required an absolute balance between French and English (often with two leaders speaking different policy agendas). In modern political times the cabinet must still be balanced with representation from Quebec, but also from Eastern Canada (where the Liberals preformed very strongly), Central Canada and Western Canada. The cabinet will also have to include a proportional number of woman and aboriginals reflecting the values of Canadians. The Liberal government will need new-Canadians and people of all perspectives in order to build a cabinet which is representative of the people. And we also cannot forgot competency, which is required of every minister in order to quarterback the leaders’ vision for the government and implementation of policy within their respective departments.

So the short answer to the question of what is happening post-election is that Harper remains Prime Minister until the new ministry is sworn-in and the Liberals, in particular Justin Trudeau, are extremely busy.

Image of Trudeau from CBC News. Election 2015/2011 results from BBC News.

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